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Diogenes of NJ

What do you figure the over/under is for when Putin sends in the Spetsnaz to take out this site? If they're good, they might get away with a few SM-3s still in the box.

I'd pull it off when the mulatto jackanapes is over in Hiroshima apologizing for the greatest generation. The MSM would really be in a quandary about which story to report.


I wonder if there is a capability to augment this facility with SM-2/SM-6 missiles, which would provide a capability to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles. Given the range/capability of the SM-2/SM-6, that might also be a concern to Mr Putin. Regarding Mr Diogenes' comment, Russia could just employ a LACM to negate this site. Might be nice to have something in those VLS cells for self-defense.

Diogenes of NJ

The Aegis Ashore SPY-1 radar does not search for anything. It remains in a standby condition until it receives a cue from other BMD sensors in the event a ballistic missile is launched into the space that the radar is capable of tracking. SM-3 can be launched before the radar has a local track based on the cue. This was demonstrated by the shoot down of USA-193 back in 2008.

Under the current Aegis Ashore CONOPS there is no AAW capability as a consequence of the manner in which the radar operates. If the Spetsnaz were to undertake an assault similar to the one which took out OBL, the Aegis Ashore facility would never see them coming. The VLS cells are a good distance from the facility. I'd give the Russians even odds on making off with one using a heavy lift helicopter. I suspect that the Russians have an excellent idea of where the holes are in the Romanian air defense and might even have a few folks on the inside to help out.

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